![]() Most of our population is concentrated in larger communities. The top 0.7% of the counties have an equivalent population of the smallest 80.2% of counties. The first result I noticed is that there are many smaller counties than larger ones. I also present this as a percentage based on the total population associated with each candidate. I also computed an average margin of victory (MOV) for that bracket by taking the sum of the vote differences for all counties. As we know, the Republicans won this election. I was looking to see how well the representation taken at a county level correlates with the election results. I then calculated the representative population by assigning the entire population of a county to the winning candidate. I summed the counties won by each candidate across each bracket. Table 1: County Groups Based on Population* For those interested in the numbers, they are shown in Table 1. The result was roughly 64 million people per bucket. Note these are total population numbers, not the number of voters. I divided the counties into five (5) brackets based on population, as reported by the US Census Bureau updated for 2016. I found a total of 3142 counties that had recorded votes. I ran an analysis to determine if a county's population correlated to that county's winning candidate. However, some data tables had to be built from multiple sources. I gathered much of the data directly from government records. I pulled up the list of counties and their voting results for the 2016 Presidential election. One of the wonders of the internet is that data are never that far away. This analysis looks to understand how the population of a county influences its voting tendencies.This is not the Electoral college results, R-304, D-227.So, I thought I would have a look to see if there was anything to this. This conforming would lead to Right-leaning tendencies. Less populous counties would have close-knit communities and more conforming ideals. This exposure would result in Left-leaning tendencies. When you live in more populated areas, you interact with a greater diversity of people. I wanted to analyze if the social structures created from population density affects our voting preferences. But we are social creatures and heavily influenced by the company we keep. I have seen analysis by population and by geography and the dramatically different results for each approach. Is there a correlation between the county's size and their voting tendencies? But the discussions turn towards Democratic victories for the 1 or 2 large metropolitan areas. When the topic was the rural areas of America, it always seemed to be about Republic victories. And as I look back at election night 2016, I remember the discussions of county result as they were coming in. This one may prove to be stranger than the last. ![]()
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